Thursday, 31 October 2002
THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DROUGHT ON AGRICULTURE OF ARMENIA
The territory of Armenia is specific for strongly
pronounced vertical alternation of six basic climate
types - from dry subtropical up to severe Alpine, and
temperature contrasts. In the low-lands the average
air temperature in July and August reaches 24-260C,
and in the Alpine belt the temperature does not exceed
100C. In January, depending on the height and
peculiarities of the relief, the temperature varies
within the bounds of 1-130C. In Armenia the absolute
maximum and minimum temperatures reach 410C and -420C.
In general, Armenia is distinguished by aridity - the
average annual precipitation is 592 mm. The majority
of the country is considerable lower with only 200-400
mm of precipitation. Duration of the heating period is
120 days, and of the air conditioning - 90 days. One
of the most characteristic features of its climate
is intensity and abundance of solar radiation, which,
accordingly, make 1.46 cal/cm2 and 2500 hours per
year. With great effort, some planning and a history
of diligence and creating, Armenia has adapted to this
dry climate such that the country maintains a large
agricultural industry.
The climate change on the territory of Armenia is
caused mainly by the impact of global climate change,
and also by the internal microclimatic changes of
anthropogenic origin. Preliminary estimations have
shown, that average air temperature in Armenia will
increase by 1.70C in 2100, the average annual
precipitation will decreased by about 10% (59mm). In
the last few years in Armenia changes of climatic
characteristics are observed. Because of precipitation
reduction and increase of air temperature, the
droughts become more frequent and intensive. So,
within the summer of 2000 influence of a long drought
in territory of Armenia was observed. Exceptionally
dry weather persisted in the territory of country. The
precipitation was too low - about 20-40 per cent of
normal. The air temperature was above the normal on
3-50C, in some regions - on 7-90C. The maximal
temperature in Ararat valley was 39-420C.
“Atmospheric” drought was combined with “soil”
drought. Especially strongly the non-irrigated land
was exposed to the drought effect. Until the altitude
of 2000 the capacity of efficient soil moisture was
about 0. The dry hot weather had negative effect on
the yields of crops, especially for the cereals,
fruits and potatoes. The damage to the agricultural
sector of Armenia from the impact of drought (in 2000)
is about 100 million USD.
In case of the forecasted climate change, depending
on the vegetation period and the altitude of the
district, a reduction of soil humidity by 10-30%, of
natural humidity provision of various agricultural
cultures by 7-13% and an increase of soil moisture
deficit by 25-50mm is expected. Under the projected
change of climatic characteristics, the efficiency of
plant-cultivation in Armenia can be reduced by the
8-14%. The productivity of cereals will be reduced on
average by 9-13%, vegetable cultures - by 7-14%,
potato - by 8-10%, fruits - by 5-8%. The productivity
of a more heat-resistant grapes can grow by 8-10%. The
following consequences in pasture cattle-breeding are
projected: reduction of the pasture area as a whole
and the stocks of their production by 4-10%, including
the areas of the most valuable and productive pastures
of sub-Alpine and Alpine belts by 19-22%, and also a
productivity decrease of mountain hayfields by 7-10%.
In this respect a reduction of the number of cattle by
30% and production of cattle-breeding by 28-30% is
expected.
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