Initial Steps Towards Verifying Spot Fire Weather Forecasts

A two-year project is beginning to assess the degree of improvement provided by spot and incident fire weather forecasts relative to National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) forecasts. The goal is to evaluate critical elements of spot forecasts of surface weather (e.g., temperature, relative humidity, and wind) and boundary layer parameters (e.g., mixing height, Haines Index, clearing index) for the ~20,000 spot forecasts annually. Our work is intended to allow the flexibility to assess and evaluate fire weather forecasts as they pertain to local situations recognizing that the spot forecast elements requested by users from NWS Forecast Offices varies substantively around the nation. Initial case studies and issues associated with the collection and validation of the Spot forecasts will be presented.