Monday, 3 August 2015
Back Bay Ballroom (Sheraton Boston )
In this study, a three-variable model similar to the Lorenz (1963) model will be presented to examine the stability of the hurricane maximum potential intensity (MPI) equilibrium. This model describes the evolution of several fundamental hurricane scales in terms of a set of nonlinear constraints for which the MPI equilibrium turns out to be structurally stable under the wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE) feedback mechanism. Further analysis shows that while radiative cooling does not change the MPI equilibrium, the radiative forcing could modify the basin of attraction of the MPI equilibrium and create a trapping domain in the phase space of the hurricane scales that a vortex would not develop if its initial conditions are inside this trapping domain. Potential long-range predictability of hurricane intensity will be also discussed.
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