Simulations of Convectively-Induced Turbulence based on a Radar-Based Climatology of Tropical Storm Types

Convective hazards such as lightning, hail, and turbulence are known to be dangerous to aviation. In order to limit aviation accidents associated with convection, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has several avoidance policies in place. Though these policies have been solely based on research performed in the midlatitude, continental U.S., aviation operations in the tropics still abide by the FAA avoidance policies. In this study, a limited three year climatology of tropical storms was created using both ground-based and satellite-based radar in the Guam region in order to analyze the frequency of several storm types and to gain a sense of which storm types could most commonly influence aviation. Using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, convection on August 5-6, 2005 was simulated to determine the strength and location of turbulence caused by convectively induced gravity waves. Turbulence was calculated using the Ellrod Index. The results from the model simulations were compared to the avoidance policies set by the FAA to determine if these policies are representative of tropical convection hazards.