An Evaluation of Detecting Tropical Cyclone Genesis from GFDL Vortex Tracker using KMA's Unified Model Forecasts

An Evaluation of Detecting Tropical Cyclone Genesis from GFDL Vortex Tracker using KMA's Unified Model Forecasts SooHui Jeon, HyoSoon Park, KiRyong Kang, Won-Tae Yun National Typhoon Center / Korea Meteorological Administration Numerical modeling has become an increasingly important component of typhoon research and operational typhoon forecasting. Typhoon forecasts are typically represented in the output either directly from the forecast model or in a post-processing step of the modeling system using an external vortex tracker. The present study evaluated detecting tropical cyclone (especially grade of tropical depression) genesis, track and intensity from Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Vortex Tracker (GFDL-VT) for usefulness. The used data in this study is the output of Korea Meteorological Administration's Unified Model forecasts in 2014. The skill of forecast is assessed using statistics of categorical forecast, root mean square error. A spatial analysis is also done. The result can be used to provide comprehensive information on the predictions of tropical cyclogenesis, track, and intensity, and would also contribute to the reduction of disasters from typhoons by securing preceding time to forecast.