Verification of FNMOC Operational Models in the Coastal Zone

Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) runs operational atmospheric and ocean wave models for the US Navy and other National assets. FNMOC operates global models and over 60 regional models of varying resolutions, many of which include coastal zones. Standard verification of the models compare surface and upper air observations against model forecasts within regions of interest or at selected stations. It is often taken on faith that higher resolution is better, particularly in the coastal zone, but the standard verification techniques do not offer metrics to validate this hypothesis.

In order to examine the performance of our models in the coastal zone, we have developed a coastal zone mask, and applied it to our verification software as a filter. This paper will compare traditional area averaged verification statistics against model and observation data confined to the coastal zone. The effect of increasing resolution will be tested by direct comparison of global and regional models in selected areas. Focus will be on operational wind and wave forecasts, but upper air verification will also be shown. Future directions in operational model verification will be briefly discussed.