Thursday, 11 June 2009: 9:20 AM
Pinnacle A (Stoweflake Resort and Confernce Center)
The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) which began in mid-January 2009 will be analyzed and assessed in detail. The temperature and wind anomalies associated with this split vortex type of sudden warming far exceeded previous warmings. We will present a comparison of the dynamics and energetics of this split vortex warming with the composites of Charlton and Polvani (2007) and Limpasuvan et al. (2003) to show how well they agree and disagree. We will present our assessment of the dynamics and energetics leading to the warming and what the impacts of the downward propagation of the warming were upon the Northern Annular Mode. We will discuss how the SSW composite information was used in the creation of CPC's monthly and seasonal forecasts during the course of the SSW phenomena. Lastly, we will assess how well the NCEP Global Forecast System and the Climate Forecast System climate model predicted this SSW.
Supplementary URL: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/winter_bulletins/
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