Seamless Probabilistic Analysis and Forecasting: From Minutes to Days Ahead

A seamless probabilistic forecasting system (SAPHIR) has been continuously developed at ZAMG and will be further developed. The system is designed to provide the best possible deterministic weather information as well as probabilistic forecasts on very high spatial resolution of 1 km grid size. The system is updated up to every 10 minutes and spans the forecast horizons from the current state of the atmosphere, minutes to hours ahead, up to the short range of +72 hours. It integrates various kinds of observation data (i.e. station data, radar and satellite data) and smartly combines observation-based analysis and nowcasting methods, ensemble nowcasting, a convection-permitting RUC model, a convection-permitting EPS, ensemble calibration, and regional and global deterministic and probabilistic NWP models.

The concept of the system and first results will be presented and discussed.