Climate, Snow and Infiltration Interactions on the Pajarito Plateau, New Mexico

Future climate shifts for the Pajarito Plateau indicate changes to precipitation, with annual increases projected by most climate models. However, the form of precipitation (snow versus rain) will largely dictate how infiltration is affected. Importantly, whether snow and rain infiltrate or runoff is also effected by vegetation changes, which have been ongoing in the past and are expected to increase in the future. In this work, we present results from a modeling study in the Pajarito Plateau region of northern New Mexico where we examine changes to snow and rain in the context of changing vegetation to determine how the complex interplay of impacts will affect infiltration patterns. Changes in historical trends from SNOTEL stations, and other climate observations will be presented, along with future analysis based on a suite of earth system models and global climate models. This research is important for scientists, water management, public officials, and the general public working and living on and nearby the Los Alamos National Laboratory.