Extended Abstract (436K)9.2
Climate change hotspots
Mohamed Magdy Abdel Wahab, NCAR, Giza, Egypt
Regional Variability in Climate Change Hot-spots in Africa U. Anber, M.M. Abdel Wahab and D. Yates* Department of Astronomy and Meteorology, Cairo University,Cairo Egypt * National Center of Atmospheric research, Colorado, USa
The Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is employed to investigate hot-spots under 21st century global warming over Africa. The RCCI is calculated on 1-degree resolution grid from the ensemble of CMIP3 simulations for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The RCCI over Africa exhibits marked sub-regional variability. Seven sub-regions are identified over the area of investigation: Southern Mediterranean, Sahara, Western Africa, Eastern Africa, Equatorial Africa, Southern Equatorial Africa, and Southern Africa. Contributions from different factors to the RCCI are discussed for the sub-regions. Analysis of the temporal evolution of the hot-spots throughout the 21st century shows different speeds of response time to global warming for the different sub-regions. Hot-spots emerge in the Southern Mediterranean and Sahara. These hot-spots become evident by the mid of the 21st century and it is the most prominent by the end of the century. While hot-pots are generally evident in all the 7 sub-regions for the A2 scenario, in the A1B scenario, the hot-spots of Southern Mediterranean, Sahara, and South Africa emerge in the last 20 year period of the 21st century. No hot-spot emerge in the B1 scenario, which has the lowest GHG concentrations except for the Southern Mediterranean during the period 2061-2080. Our analysis indicates that sub-regional hot-spots show a rather complex spatial and temporal dependency on the GHG concentration and on the different factors contributing to the RCCI.
Session 9, Local Responses to Regional and Global Climate Change II
Thursday, 5 August 2010, 9:00 AM-10:00 AM, Crestone Peak III & IV
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