Urban climate prediction in 2070's by the WRF model with 3-km horizontal resolution: The three major metropolitan areas in Japan

A purpose of the present study is to evaluate and show the basic performance of the WRF model for the urban climate simulation during the past 10-year period (2000's). The Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) and Temperature-Humidity Index (THI), which are heat index to predict heat stress/stroke, will be also evaluated as well as the temperature. Another purpose is to predict urban climate including the WBGT and THI of the three major meteropolitan areas in Japan in 2070's using the WRF model with 3-km horizontal resolution. The results are very briefly summarized as follows. (1) The WRF model reproduces urban climate well. The accuracy is almost the same as that of the JMA/MRI-NHRCM for the current climate simulation (hindcast), although the features of the systematic error are different. (2) Regarding the urban climate prediction in 2070's, it is found that the surface air temperature in the Nagoya area tends to increase larger than that of the other two areas, Tokyo and Osaka until 2070's. More detail will be shown in the workshop.