2b.1 Next-Generation Verification System at the Climate Prediction Center

Monday, 18 July 2011: 1:30 PM
Salon C2 (Asheville Renaissance)
Jon Gottschalck, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD

Verification of key forecast products is a priority at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). They provide essential information not only to users in the public that use these climate services, but also supply critical data to CPC forecasters on the skill of our official outlook products and forecast tools. CPC management also requires clear understanding of the current skill level for main forecast products to brief upper-level management within the National Weather Service and NOAA.

The current verification system at CPC has become substandard due to various issues that include changes in computer infrastructure, human resource challenges and the lack of validation of newly developed forecast data and tools. The CPC is in the process of upgrading verification activities and this paper will present the scope, planned functionality, progress to date, and timeline of this next generation verification system. The capabilities will be illustrated via examples as well as with recent actual verification statistics from CPC operational forecast products.

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