A case study examines the possible benefits of settling these contracts using forecast temperatures. First, a sample swap is created for February HDD's in Billings, MT based on climatology. In February 2019, this station accumulated 980 HDD's, which is near the point of zero payoff. Nearly one-fifth of this total was from a four day period on 4-7 February where only a brief chinook on the 5th pushed temperatures above freezing and overnight lows were all in the single digits. However, the GFS MOS forecast for these days spread this chinook over a much longer period resulting in five over-forecasts of 10+ degrees F and nearly a 20% drop in HDD totals. A derivative contract using the forecast temperatures would result in a $180,000 payoff increase, which compares favorably with possible losses on the energy trade market, but other considerations on the use of forecasts settlements in general are also discussed.