Field Assessment and Integration of National Water Model Output into National Weather Service River Forecast Center Operations

With the development of the National Water Model (NWM), the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) needed tools to access, view, and assess the NWM output within their operational workflow. A team was established in February 2016, the NWM Output Assessment Team (NOAT), to develop consistent methods for ingesting NWM data into the RFC environment and to work with existing National Water Center (NWC) project teams to determine what metrics would best serve the validation and verification function for the newly available forecast information. This team has continued to lead efforts to integrate guidance from the NWM into the existing hydrologic forecast paradigm that is focused on high quality river forecasts at a limited number of locations.

Using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Virtual Lab (VLab), the team members developed, shared and tested various methods of acquiring and displaying output from the NWM with the NWS Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). CHPS is a software infrastructure containing the various hydrologic models, tools and visualizations available to the RFCs. Common sets of metrics have been developed and shared throughout the RFC community using generalized configurations that have been shared through VLab. Currently the members of the NOAT are working to ensure that the NWC’s Water Resources Evaluation Service (WRES) encompasses all of the verification efforts already completed by the team. Field input has been invaluable for this effort, providing documentation to guide improvements to the NWM to ensure that it continues to progress towards the National Weather Service water mission, which is to deliver timely and consistent, state-of-the-science national hydrologic analyses, forecast information, data, guidance, and decision-support services to inform essential emergency management and water resources decisions across all time scales.