Recent Improvements to and Performance Evaluation of the Operational Eccc Air Quality Forecast Systems (RAQDPS and RAQDPSFW) Implemented in Summer 2019

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)'s Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) has been run operationally since 2004 to provide 48-hour national forecasts of O₃, NO₂, and PM_2.5. Since April 2016, a second version of the RAQDPS that includes satellite-based, quasi-real-time wildfire emissions (RAQDPSFW) has been run during the Canadian wildfire season (April-October). Both systems are run twice a day starting at 00 and 12 UTC over a continental-scale domain with 10-km horizontal grid spacing.

On July 3, 2019, major improvements were introduced to the operational RAQDPS and RAQDPSFW, including the extension of the AQ forecasts out to 72 hours. The extension of the regional AQ forecasts beyond 48 hours allows earlier warnings to be provided to at-risk populations, particularly when air pollution events are expected. This presentation will give an overview of these improvements and show their impact on AQ model forecasts using near-real-time hourly observations of O₃, NO₂, and PM_2.5 from the Canadian and U.S. AQ monitoring networks. The added value of incorporating quasi-real-time wildfire emissions over North America and extending the forecast period will also be presented for the 2019 summer season.