100 Years of Progress in Tropical Cyclone Research

At the time of the founding of the AMS 100 years ago, little was known about the vertical structure or basic physics of tropical cyclones. Forecasting was primitive, and as recently as 1938 a severe hurricane could strike the U.S. with no warning. In this talk, I will review some of the key developments in tropical cyclone science and forecasting that have brought us to the present, when the basic physics are understood and predictive skill has reached a level unimaginable just a few decades ago. The talk will conclude with a discussion of outstanding scientific and operational challenges that confront the vibrant field of tropical cyclone research and forecasting.