A Historical Perspective on Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis (Core Science Keynote) (Invited Presentation) (Centennial)

Hydrometeorological forecasting serves a critical role in the society from many aspects, including water hazards emergency management, water resources planning, and infrastructure design. This presentation provides a historical perspective on the evolution of hydrometeorological forecasting. This talk will cover major development in hydrometeorological modeling, observations and data assimilation, forecasting methodologies and the use of forecast information to serve the societal needs. This talk will discuss uncertainty involved in hydrometeorological forecasting and different ways to confront them. The talk will end with some perspectives on challenges and opportunities in hydrometeorological forecasting.