Hydroclimate-Influenced Transmission of Waterborne Diseases in the Environment and Human Population

Growth of several infectious pathogens is associated hydroclimatic processes. Outbreaks of diseases such as cholera can be divided into two components: the trigger and the transmission of the disease in a human population. Our previous research has focused on the trigger component of this disease, where we have shown that risk of cholera can be reliably estimated using earth observations. The transmission part of cholera is the mechanism of spread of infection within the human population. Once the disease is triggered (initiated), transmission of cholera is accelerated by fecal-oral transmission (enhanced by regional hydroclimatic processes), and ultimately, a disease outbreak occurs. Outbreak of disaese will likely to follow similar phenological pathways of transmission, with different magnitudes of infection levels as a function of modalities of interaction of hydroclimatic processes, within human population. A statistical physics based disease trigger and transmission simulation model was developed to assess influence of hydroclimatic processes on environmental reservoirs under which cholera bacteria survives in the aquatic environment and then interacts with human population. We will discuss critical feedback loops that are generating complicated relationships of a human-pathogen goal-seeking behavior. The results will provide a mechanistic, population based, earth observation inspired simulation platform on scenario (what, how why) based trigger and transmission of cholera in human population.