Montecito Mudslides 2018 Revisited

Due to an unfortunate combination of fire removal of aboveground vegetation and a subsequent storm, Montecito had the first major mudslide with fatalities in 2018. This study uses a mature landslide dynamic modeling framework to examine a regional area containing the recent fire sites. This study indicates that the compounding or ‘coincidence’ of extreme precipitation, the concurrent availability of sufficient sliding material exposed on slopes, and graded slopes configured into a converging watershed are the mudslide triads. This talk also will present two mechanisms through which future warming climate facilitates more severe debris flows. A well-tested extensible, distributed, and full MPI parallel Fortran code (SEGMENT-Landslide) is the backbone of this research. Its post-analysis also has AI features for decision-makers and general public as well.