Adding tropical cyclone genesis verification capabilities to the Model Evaluation Tools (MET+)

Accurately predicting tropical cyclone (TC) genesis continues to be an operational priority. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses several TC genesis guidance products – some of which were developed through the Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) – for their operational Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO). Currently there is no unified verification system that allows NHC to directly compare its probabilistic TWO forecasts against the various guidance tools. Furthermore, global model output is used in many of the TC genesis guidance products and is considered an important source of raw guidance for TC genesis forecasts. The Developmental Testbed Center/Global Model Test Bed (DTC/GMTB) evaluates the sensitivity of TC genesis forecast accuracy to different model parameterizations in the GFS. The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) also considers the performance of TC genesis forecasts when evaluating new versions of the GFS. The activities of the JHT, GMTB, and EMC motivate the need to develop a standard framework to verify deterministic and probabilistic TC genesis forecasts. This presentation will summarize the progress made so far in adding TC genesis verification capabilities to the Model Evaluation Tools (MET+) software in order to provide this standard framework for verification. Output from test cases and plans for further development will also be discussed.