The Impact of Tropical Cyclone Research on Operational Forecasting

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) began issuing 24 hr quantitative forecasts of tropical cyclone position in 1954. Over the next 65 years, the NHC product suite was greatly expanded to include formation probability, track and intensity forecasts to 5 days, wind structure forecasts to 72 hr and storm surge watches and warnings. The accuracy of these forecasts also saw vast improvements. For example, the accuracy of the 120 hr track forecasts in the 2010’s was about the same as that for the 36 hr track forecasts in the 1970s. Over this same time period, theoretical , modeling and observational research provided increased understanding of tropical cyclone physical processes, including the energy sources, the role of inner core and environmental processes on motion, intensity and structure changes. In this paper, the influence of this research on NHC’s operational tropical cyclone forecasts is reviewed. Current forecast limitations and the outlook for the future is also described.