Forecasting Marine Hazards with Limited Observations and Verification

The GOES-R and JPSS Proving Ground Programs were conceived to demonstrate and familiarize forecasters with the next generation geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite products and capabilities that will be incorporated into National Weather Service operations. These satellite product demonstrations at the Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) have concentrated on various forecast challenges that impact operations daily. Since the launch of Suomi-NPP, Himawari-8, GOES-16, NOAA-20, and recently GOES-17, many new forecast products are available to forecasters at OPC to help diagnose and forecast significant events. The last six years have featured opportunities to investigate how these new satellites can improve the marine weather forecast process using proxy and real-time data sets that address various challenges including offshore thunderstorms, fog, cyclogenesis, and tropical cyclones. These new products have helped identify new satellite analysis techniques that will improve the decision-making process and increase lead times for these and other high impact events. This presentation seeks to show examples of how the Geostationary Lightning Mapper along with tools like the NOAA Unique Combined Atmospheric Profiles (NUCAPS) will be used to better assess the threats associated with strong maritime convection. The presentation will also highlight techniques used to identify precursors to increased potential vorticity associated with developing cyclones or transitioning tropical cyclones using multispectral imagery, NUCAPS, ozone products, and derived motion vectors.