Enhancing Coastal Water-Level Forecasting to Support the Protection of Life and Property—2019 Update

The demand for authoritative forecasts of water level and coastal inundation information due to surge, tides and waves continues to increase as population and property becomes located closer to the water.

In 2017, the National Weather Service (NWS) Eastern Region embarked on a project to have all offices produce and disseminate, via multiple outlets, total water level forecasts for many different locations. These forecasts are tied into impacts for coastal areas including potential inundation. It is the goal of this project to be able to communicate this needed information at all times, not only when tropical cyclones are threatening.

These total water forecasts are based on official NOAA surge guidance, and are refined using local office climatologies, wave run up guidance, and bias calculations. We will present our preliminary verification information and highlight some recent efforts that will improve the efficiency of previous versions of forecaster tools and the clarity and consistency of warning messages to the public.

These official total water forecasts are presented to the public on the NWS AHPS web pages (water.weather.gov), and utilize the NWS AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor application to ensure consistency between the forecast hydrographs on AHPS and any coastal advisories, watches, warnings.

Examples from recent high impact coastal events, and feedback from Emergency Managers will be presented during the meeting.