Evaluating the Addition of Forecast Timing Information with Multiple User Groups

As forecasting technology continues to improve, users may start to see specific threat information hours before the event is forecasted to occur. For example, the Storm Prediction Center is currently developing new forecast methods and guidance products to potentially allow forecasters the ability to including specific hazard timing information within the day one convective outlook product. A similar method of forecasting and communicating event timing information was tested with both forecasters and emergency managers in the 2019 Hazardous Weather Testbed. Forecasters expressed a desire to have a method to display timing information, but were still concerned about the functionality of the product, especially during complex weather patterns or when there is significant model disagreement. Further analysis will describe the skill and usefulness of guidance information used in the 2019 experiment.

This project is an example of the FACETs developmental paradigm where the creation of prototype products happens simultaneously with the testing of the product with users. When tested with emergency managers, the most cited reason for using this product was with staffing decisions, as well as with the communication and justification of decisions related to weather preparedness. Unlike the 2018 experiment, there was less concern about the certainty and reliability of the product, with most participants expressing the need for an official product to help them explain the reasoning for the decisions they make during an event. Feedback from the 2019 experiment will be used to improve the visualization and guidance products for the 2020 experiment.