How Improvements to Ensemble Prediction Could Help the Development of Risk- or Impact-Based Forecasting

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) produces world-leading ensemble weather forecasts. These are vital to risk based forecasts across the world as the ensemble output can be used to produce probability forecasts and can feed directly into risk- or impact-based forecasting models. The Head of ECMWF's Production Services Section will present some of the planned future improvements for ECMWF's already highly skillful ensemble forecasts, and will show how these improvements should help risk- or impact-based forecasting to develop over the coming years. Finally, this will also be an opportunity to show some of the ways in which ECMWF are working to support development of multi-hazard and risk- or impact-based forecasting across Europe.