Testing a Physics-based Model of the Thermodynamic Environment in Supercell Simulation Experiments

Recent work proposed a novel physics-based model for the thermodynamic environment favorable for severe local storms based on the vertical structure of moist static energy. This model has the potential to improve upon prior empirical models but has yet to be applied in high-resolution simulations of severe local storms. Here we apply and test this model in high-resolution simulations of observed supercell events in CM1. We first simulate the historical event using a real-data sounding and compare results against a simulation using the theoretical model fit to the real-data sounding. We further test the sensitivity of the outcome to key aspects of the vertical structure of the thermodynamic environment not captured by the theoretical model. Preliminary results indicate that the supercell evolution can be successfully reproduced using the theoretical model. The qualitative evolution is strongly sensitive to variations in mid-level relative humidity not captured by the model. Overall, the model may offer a useful new method for understanding how variations in the vertical structure of the thermodynamic environment influence severe local storm activity and how these variations are generated by the climate system.