Our research goals have been achieved through the combined use of idealized cloud-resolving model simulations and an advanced multivariate sensitivity analysis technique. In order to examine the ten-dimensional sensitivity of land-sea breeze convective characteristics, an ensemble of 130 initial conditions for tropical land-sea breeze simulations has been designed by simultaneously perturbing six atmospheric and four surface parameters. Using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System coupled to an interactive land-surface model, 130 pairs of tropical land-sea breeze simulations have been performed in low- (clean) and high (polluted) aerosol environments. For each convective output of interest, a statistical emulator has been constructed to map the relationship between the individual input environmental parameters and the output responses over the ten-dimensional uncertainty space.
Finally, the environmental parameters that lead to the largest changes in updraft speeds and the redistribution of microphysically active aerosols have been identified through the variance-based sensitivity analysis. The changes in the relative contributions of the environmental parameters to updraft speeds and aerosol redistribution as a function of aerosol loading have been assessed. The results of this analysis will be presented, and the mechanisms responsible in each environment will be discussed.