Earth’s changing climate has brought about numerous health concerns including: aeroallergens, drastic changes in temperature and precipitation, vector-borne and water-borne diseases, wildfires, etc. These climate effects have the potential to considerably impact human health. Certain vulnerable populations and areas may experience the effects of certain climate to a greater extent than others. Local public health departments are at the forefront of building adaptive capacity in response to the health effects of climate change. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has developed a five-step process, Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) framework, to assist public health officials prepare for climate-related health effects through strategy development and program organization. The objective of this project was to describe the climate-related impacts, interventions, and vulnerabilities to Grays Harbor County (GHC), Washington.
Methods
The BRACE framework was used to guide the methods. Developed by the CDC, BRACE is a five-step iterative process designed to assist public health officials prepare for climate-related health effects through strategy development and program organization. The steps include 1) forecasting climate impacts and assessing vulnerabilities; 2) projecting the disease burden; 3) assessing public health interventions; 4) developing and implementing a climate and health adaptation plan; and 5) evaluation. In order to ensure sustainability of this work, existing data sources were reviewed, when possible (e.g. National Environmental Public Health Tracking). Existing work from researchers at the Climate Impact Research Consortium (CIRC) at Oregon State University was also used to work through the BRACE framework.
Results
Results from the first three steps of BRACE identified the climate impacts to the county (i.e. temperature, precipitation, wildfires flooding, aeroallergens, and water temperature and acidity), social and health vulnerability, health effects of climate change likely to impact the county, and public health interventions to address these identified health effects.
A social vulnerability index (SVI), created by the Agency for Toxic Substances & Disease Registry’s (ATSDR) Geospatial Research, Analysis & Services Program, used US Census data to rank census tracts, counties, and states on 15 social factors. The SVI includes variables related to socioeconomic status, household composition and disability, minority status and language, and housing and transportation. GHC ranked in the highest category for overall social vulnerability and in the highest category for socioeconomic vulnerability, which encompasses variables related to poverty, unemployment, income, and high school diploma status.
Temperature projections show GHC to have an increase in the number of extreme heat days, average number of days with daily minimums and maximums above the 99th percentile. Higher temperatures and reduced precipitation in the summer could also increase wildfire risk. While the risk of wildfires within GHC is low, the air quality can be impacted by smoke blown in by offshore winds from large fires on the eastern slopes of the Cascades. Given that GHC does not have a recent history of large fires, there are no county-specific projections regarding wildfires. Regarding precipitation, GHC is projected to have slight increases in the rate of annual precipitation intensity through the end of century and increase in the number of future extreme precipitation days. County-level projections for GHC regarding flooding were not available; however, the frequency of flooding in Washington is projected to increase from January to March and decrease in April and May. Changes in water temperature and acidity and aeroallergens were also reviewed.
Impacts of these climate changes on human health were also reviewed including heat-related illness, vector-borne disease, harmful algal bloom-related illness, other infectious diseases, and allergic disease. A summary of global interventions related to select climate health impacts is described, much of which was abstracted from the CDC’s Climate and Health Intervention Assessment.
Conclusions
As has been demonstrated in previous literature and in this document, climate change raises a host of concerns related to aeroallergens, changes in temperature and precipitation, vector-borne and water-borne diseases, wildfires, etc. These climate effects and their subsequent impacts to human health can have drastic implications for future policy. The use of the BRACE framework in this document to evaluate the climate-related impacts, interventions, vulnerabilities specific to Grays Harbor County will ideally provide the basis for informing a climate-adaptation plan in the future.
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