Prediction of 2019 High-Impact Hurricanes and Typhoons with COAMPS-TC

COAMPS-TC is the regional dynamical model used by the U.S. Navy to provide operational predictions of tropical cyclone (TC) position, intensity, and surface wind field extent for TCs worldwide. For the first time in 2019, two versions of the deterministic COAMPS-TC model were run operationally, one using GFS for initial and lateral boundary condition information (i.e. CTCX) and another using NAVGEM (i.e. COTC). The CTCX version of COAMPS-TC was also employed in a real-time 11-member ensemble prediction system demonstrated in 2019, in preparation for the operational implementation of the COAMPS-TC EPS in 2020.

Here we examine COAMPS-TC predictions of the 2019 high-impact TC cases, focusing both on Atlantic hurricanes and Western North Pacific typhoons. For these cases we will detail the performance of the COAMPS-TC real-time model runs, showing how the results fit into the larger context of persistent challenges in regional operational dynamical model TC prediction (e.g. rapid intensification), as well as highlighting the unique aspects of forecasting these particular cases. Finally, we will contrast the real-time operational CTCX deterministic forecast performance with those of experimental versions of CTCX with much higher horizontal resolution in (1) the synoptic-scale TC environment and (2) the TC inner core.