climate change and water security in South Africa; Assessing conflict and coping strategies in KwaZulu Natal

The peculiarity of South Africa vis-à-vis vulnerability to climate change, especially water scarcity, has become an issue of political and economic concern. The study assessed the security implications triggered by the impact of climate change on water security of rural communities in the uMkhanyakude District Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal. It focused on the extent to which this might trigger conflict as a coping mechanism in order to inform policy options. Data was sourced using a mixed method approach where 385 survey questionnaires were distributed using a multi layered purposive simple random sampling method; 12 in-depth interviews using purposive sampling; as well as 8 focus group discussions. The data generated was analysed using SPSS descriptive statistics, as well as thematic content analysis for the quantitative and qualitative data respectively.

The study asserts that the impact of climate change realities in Africa cannot be over emphasized. The vulnerability of rural communities in South Africa to these realities, especially water is intensified by its weak coping capacity in terms of poverty, lack of infrastructure as well as over dependence on climate sensitive resources. The study findings showed that the vulnerability of rural communities to climate induced water scarcity is further intensified by government post resilience instead of pre-emptive pre-resilience strategies. The study also showed that temperature continues to increase while annual rainfall is on a continuous decline leading to water shortages across all quarters. This development has negative effects on the livelihoods of rural communities due to their high dependence on climate sensitive resources. In view of this, the study indicated that the propensity for conflict to intensify due to the resultant climate induced water shortages continues to rise steadily as rural communities channel their frustrations over the negligence of their immediate water needs. The study concluded that conflict will only decline when proactive rather than reactive measures are taken to manage water scarcity and vulnerability in these areas.