Building an Interannual to Decadal Prediction and Projection Capability for Decision Support

The National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC) convened an exploratory workshop on June 4th and 5th at NOAA’s National Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP) in College Park, MD on “Building an Interannual to Decadal Prediction and Projection Capability for Decision Support.” Changes in climate over the extended range can impact long-term planning strategies, and Earth system predictions/projections should be incorporated into strategic decisions over the 2 to 30-year time range in order to mitigate cost and vulnerability of national security, economic vitality, infrastructure, and natural resources. Due to the impacts of extended range prediction on decision making, users are proactively seeking guidance to inform multimillion dollar decisions with long-term scope, however, there is considerable risk of misuse, misunderstanding, or inappropriate use of the information found. Limited resources do not permit any individual agency to address these issues comprehensively, nor do all the decisions fall within any one agency’s individual mission. However, the commonality of the physical problem creates an opportunity to pursue a coordinated capability across agencies for building a more unified response for decadal prediction decision support, rather than ad hoc reactions representing short-term, potentially divergent, or resource-expensive solutions. The workshop served as a foundation for continuing information exchange leading to a unified, reliable, and actionable prediction capability. The workshop was organized to inform participants of identified user needs; provide overviews of present capability and research efforts; fully understand the complexities and challenges surrounding decadal prediction; understand the range of emerging capabilities and research efforts; and begin to develop an initial unified US strategy for fulfilling user needs. A number of challenges and needs were identified, such as a lack of mission or mandate for long-term, regularly updating predictions or projections on this time-scale, and effective coordination of such an expansive national cross-agency effort for decadal prediction, assessment of capabilities, and coordination with the international community. The National ESPC is uniquely positioned to facilitate interagency efforts leading toward an interannual to decadal capability for decision support.