Communicating Confidence and Uncertainty in the National Weather Service Training Center's Impact Based Decision Support Services (IDSS) Deployment Boot Camp

One of the more difficult tasks when delivering Impact-based Decision Support Services is conveying a forecast with a high degree of uncertainty. In any incident or event, decision-makers need to make critical decisions to protect their community. Uncertainty in a forecast could potentially affect a number of decision points.

Communicating forecast uncertainty is a new and active area of research. There are few studies to help guide forecasters as they develop ways to improve this type of communication. While these studies have been useful in providing a starting point, many forecasters are finding there is no one-size fits all approach.

The instructors running the IDSS Deployment Boot Camp, offered at the NWS Training Center, focus on this difficult communication issue. During one of the full-day simulations, trainees are provided a forecast with a large degree of uncertainty. They must communicate this forecast with all its uncertainty to their emergency management partners in order to provide effective IDSS. One of the goals of this simulation is to discern some best practices on how to effectively communicate when a forecast is uncertain, thereby allowing for improved planning by decision-makers.

In this presentation, we will discuss some of the comments and feedback we’ve received from participants and guests during the IDSS Boot Camp regarding uncertainty communication in forecasts and IDSS. We will focus on the preferences and best practices related to conveying the uncertain forecast in this simulation. These preferences vary based on the partner and their needs, but the general themes are consistent among the feedback from emergency management community.