Can we Predict Interannual Surface Trace Gas Variability from Stratospheric Measurements?

We have recently shown that variability in long-lived surface trace gas measurements on one to five-year time scales is often well correlated with the stratospheric QBO. This variability is important to account for in the calculation of annual emissions of trace gases such as CFC-11 from global-scale atmospheric concentrations, and also points out an interesting connection between stratospheric and tropospheric transport variability. Since it appears that the interannual surface variability in a number of long-lived trace gases is largely driven by the stratosphere, can we predict this surface variability based on stratospheric measurements? In this study we use satellite measurements from MLS, TES and ACE, surface measurements from the NOAA network and output from WACCM simulations to explore this possibility.