Adaptation to Urban Heat Waves under Deep Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainties

The growing frequency and severity of urban heat wave events, resulting from the confluence of climate trends and land use changes, pose growing health risks. To mitigate these risks, adaptation within urban areas will be essential. Urban planners seek effective strategies for adapting to these climate impacts, such as land-use modifications (e.g., green infrastructure) and socio-behavioral changes (e.g., public education, cooling centers) to yield the greatest health benefits possible, given scarce public resources. But deep uncertainties concerning future climate, socio-economic conditions, and the effectiveness of alternative strategies, together with long lead times to implementation, mean that near-term decisions will need to be made without fully knowing their consequences. Robust and flexible strategies thus become a central concern for urban heat planning. This study employs robust decision-making to urban heat adaptation, focusing on Baltimore, Maryland. Our study explores a large ensemble of plausible future states of the world including various climate, socio-economic, and demographic conditions, and then evaluates the robustness of alternative strategies. The study defines climate scenarios using multiple climate projections from the NA-CORDEX data archive and uses ratios of present and future heat risk indices, affected by adaptation strategies, as health outcome metrics. A decision-support tool with interactive maps will show the most/least heat-vulnerable places in Baltimore and the effectiveness of alternative strategies across scenarios. As part of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Team, this project will facilitate dissemination and use of these tools by decision-makers in choosing adaptation strategies within a complex urban-climate system.