"Worst Since Sandy": An Examination of the Straight-Line Wind Event in New Jersey on 22 July 2019

Following a weekend of record heat, which forced the cancellation of big-ticket outdoor concerts with A-list performers and one of the largest triathlons in the United States, a subsequent line of severe storms caused straight line wind related damage and power outages leaving more than 325,000 customers in the dark in New Jersey in an area where approximately 530,000 electric customers are served. While the extreme heat warnings were taken seriously by authorities and local government, resulting in zero civilian deaths, the severe storm threat that followed, was not. This oral presentation will examine the lack of preparation of state officials for this high-impact weather event from a variety of perspectives. While “weather preparedness fatigue” may have set in after a week’s worth of excessive heat warnings, in addition to a very active month filled with several tornado warnings for the state causing isolated EF-0 damage, another such reason could have been the timing of official issued weather alerts. Broadcasters, such as the authors, made the threat clear in the days and hours before the event using language such as violent, dangerous and powerful to describe the severe threat. Day 2 convective outlooks had a 15% chance of damaging winds and the area in NJ was under a slight risk category. Mesoscale discussion #1568 was posted 4 hours before the event by SPC. A severe thunderstorm watch #538 was issued 3 hours before the winds of 73 mph were measured from WFO PHI, with higher gusts. There was ample warning (about one hour) from severe thunderstorm warning #271 issuance, warning of 80mph winds to event verification. The power outages lasted for 4 days in some areas of New Jersey with utility crews coming from as far as Ohio and Canada to help restore electricity. After the event, The New Jersey State Climatologist said the speed and scale of the winds rivaled a magnitude not seen since Sandy. This presentation will examine the official messaging in a qualitative manner and the lead time of the severe threat and how it could have been better perceived by the public and state officials to avoid the worst after-effects of the storm from repeating. It will also compare this severe weather event to past severe events in the same WFO area where “personal pleas” from officials proved to help mitigate the loss of life and property.