Impact of Tropical Cyclone Landfall Angle on Storm Surge

The magnitude of storm surge impacts depends on various tropical cyclone characteristics including the size, intensity and impact angle of the storm. Although the factors contributing to storm surge are known, uncertainties remain regarding the level of sensitivity to these tropical cyclone characteristics. Storm surge impact studies often focus on hindcasting past tropical cyclone-induced storm surge events, but less focus has been given to the study of storm surge predictability, which is largely constrained by the limited historical record. This work thus seeks to determine the storm surge sensitivity to tropical cyclone landfall angle in the Northeast US. We perform simulations of synthetic tropical cyclones impacting the New Jersey coast at various angles, by employing the use of a newly developed modeling capability derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). This method allows us to surpass the limitations imposed by the length of the historical record by producing around 200 synthetic cyclones. Wind and atmospheric pressure field outputs from the synthetic cyclones are used as atmospheric forcing for the Advance Circulation Model. Domain-wide storm surge heights and time-series of storm surge at tide gauges, provide the means to evaluate the locations impacted by the storms and to identify vulnerable locations along the coastline. Results highlight the sensitivity of storm surge off-shore extent as well as inundation volume to the tropical cyclone impact angle. Moreover, results point to the importance of coastal and geometric features in addition to meteorological forcing.