The Record-Setting Arkansas River Flood of 2019: An Analysis and Review of Forecasts and Coordination

The Spring Flood of 2019 on the Lower Arkansas River was unprecedented in magnitude and duration since the river was formally opened to marine navigation. This flood impacted many entities along the river including residents, recreation, and commercial industries. The Arkansas River flood also increased flooding on the Lower Mississippi River, something that it rarely has impact. This presentation will show the decision support services supplied by the National Weather Service (NWS) Arkansas-Red River Forecast Center (ABRFC) to its partners and customers. It will also show the extensive coordination conducted amongst all NWS and other federal offices, namely the US Army Corp of Engineers, in forecasting the flood during the event.

The NWS ABRFC also began issuing 90 day forecasts using meteorological forcings starting in 2012. These forecasts are based on the Hydrological Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS). These long term forecasts began to show a substantial chance of flooding compared to normal, months before the occurrence. This presentation will show details on these forecasts and how they may be used to assist in planning for future events.