The Impact of Natural Disasters on Human Mobility and Health (Invited Presentation)

Natural disasters impact human populations in many ways, but health is one of the most acute concerns in the immediate aftermath and in the medium-term. Although the most obvious impacts of a cyclone or hurricane, for example, may be injury and death due to the physical impact of the storm, the most important causes of mortality are often among elderly patients with chronic health care needs, who are unable to access health care, maintain power for electrical devices required for continued care (e.g. refrigeration of medicine or ventilation machines), or stay connected to their communities. In addition, infectious diseases - often associated with the destruction of sanitation infrastructure or the emergence of disease vectors - may arise as a problem in the wake of floods or storms. One important aspect of the human population response to disasters is displacement, with large demographic shifts impacting not only the overall health of a community, but also our ability to estimate mortality rates and other incidence estimates that rely on accurate denominators. My group has been developing tools and mathematical models to understand the impact of natural disasters on human population health and displacement using new technologies, including mobile phone data and social media data. Here, I will discuss the impact of Hurricane Maria on health and displacement in Puerto Rico, the impact of flooding in Bangladesh and India, the impact of cyclone Kenneth in Mozambique, and the role more generally of forecasting and modeling in decision making in the aftermath of these events.