100 Years of Progress in Forecasting and NWP Applications

Over the past 100 years, the collaborative effort of the international science community, including government weather services and the media, along with the associated proliferation of environmental observations, improved scientific understanding, and growth of technology, has radically transformed weather forecasting into an effective global and regional environmental prediction capability. This chapter traces the evolution of forecasting, starting in 1919 [when the American Meteorological Society (AMS) was founded], over four eras separated by breakpoints at 1939, 1956, and 1985. The current state of forecasting could not have been achieved without essential collaboration within and among countries in pursuing the common weather and Earth-system prediction challenge. AMS itself has had a strong role in enabling this international collaboration.

This talk will use an overview table (Table 1 in our monograph chapter) to highlight progress in different aspects of forecasting over these four eras from 1919 to the present, and projects anticipated advances over the next 30 years. These aspects are: 1) state of forecasting, 2) observations used for forecasting, 3) science understanding influencing forecasting, 4) community of forecast providers (government and commercial entities), 5) forecasting applications (e.g., public, agriculture, aviation, energy), 6) quantitative forecasting (NWP – modeling, data assimilation, post-processing), 7) technology changes leading to changes in forecasting/science, and 8) media, communication, comprehension of forecasting by the public. Each aspect is a component of the “global weather enterprise”. We give special attention to the development and application of NWP in the international community including the United States.