Performances of the Operational Hydrological Prediction System at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)

The Water Cycle Prediction System (WCPS) is the first operational hydrological forecast system at ECCC. The system simulates key hydrological processes between the atmosphere, land, lakes, and rivers. WCPS was implemented over the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River. Analysis and forecast products by the WCPS have already been proven to be useful for the management of the Great Lakes watershed by various levels of governments, both within Canada and across the Canada-US border, and for research centres, institutions and governmental agencies.

The key components of WCPS are the atmospheric model Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM; 10km resolution), the ocean model Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO; 2km resolution), the Los Alamos Sea Ice model (CICE; 2km resolution), the Coordinated Great Lakes Regulation and Routing Model (CGLRRM), and the river-routing model WATROUTE (1km resolution). All of these components are tightly coupled. GEM and NEMO-CICE exchange information every 7 minutes. Each hour, WATROUTE receives information from GEM and passes other information to NEMO-CICE.

WCPS produces spatially varying precipitation, evaporation, river discharge, surface runoff, lake levels, lake temperatures, lake surface currents, and lake ice concentration and thickness. The overall performances of the system will be presented for the periods of July-August 2016 and January-February 2017. Moreover, the performance of the river discharge from analysis and forecast cycles during the latest spring flood event in 2019 for the Ottawa River basin will be examined. WCPS continues to be improved on an on-going basis. The lessons learned during the development of this system are being applied to the construction of the Canada wide hydrological prediction system that is currently under development.