Future Changes to Stratospheric Composition and Their Impacts

Our interest in the stratosphere irreversibly changed with the discovery of the ozone hole in the 1980s. We now recognize the vulnerability of the ozone layer to emissions from human activities and the significant dynamical connections to the troposphere. In the future, atmospheric scientists will strive to maintain vigilance of stratospheric composition through sustained programs of observations and modeling, in part, to avoid another surprise. This presentation will discuss how chemistry and composition may change in the future as stratospheric conditions change in a new climate, and as human activities evolve. Important aspects include ozone-depleting substances, greenhouse gases, water vapor, and aerosols. New considerations may be rocket emissions from increased payload-to-space demand and solar radiation management (geoengineering) to temporarily mitigate the effects of climate change. Progress in our understanding will be aided by enhancements in our global observational and modeling capabilities.