Short-Term Predictability of Sea Ice in an Unusual Sea Ice Year

The 2019 Bering and Chuckchi sea ice season had a slow start with much below normal ice into December. While the ice starting growing more rapidly by mid-December and January, sea ice thickness was significantly below average. This allowed for significant ice loss in February due to an unusually strong storm track. Local subsistence hunters in these regions utilize the Alaska Ice Service Programme (ASIP) products that provide forecasts on both current sea ice concentration and thickness as well as how sea ice concentration may change in the next 5 days. The ASIP has been exploring how sea ice models may add value to the forecast process. In this presentation, different portions of the 2019 sea ice season will be explored and the relative predictability between models will be discussed. In addition, the implications of sea ice loss and predictability to local communities will be explored.