Assessing the Impact of ADM-Aeolus HLOS Wind Observations in the Predictability of Tropical Cyclones in NOAA’s FV3GFS

The recent launch of the European Space Agency Atmospheric Dynamics Mission (ADM)-Aeolus satellite, with its Atmospheric LAser Doppler Instrument (ALADIN) aboard, provides a great opportunity to establish a solid scientific ground for designing NOAA’s next generation architecture of observing systems. In addition, we can tangibly assess the benefit of new, uniform, and nearly-global observations of Doppler wind lidar profiles measured from space, in operational prediction systems at NOAA.

The NOAA/Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation system, the data assimilation software used in operational global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems at NOAA, is being augmented and redesigned to better utilize the Horizontal Line of Sight (HLOS) wind profiles from Aeolus. Initial impact assessment studies are being conducted in the FV3GFS model to evaluate the benefit of HLOS observations in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) and to determine an optimal configuration of observations via data denial experiments. Lessons learned in the assimilation of spaceborne wind observations in FV3GFS will then be applied to the HWRF modeling system to investigate the utility of this new instrument in the prediction of TCs at regional scales.

A critical component to evaluate the utility of Aeolus wind profiles for NWP of TCs is the validation of data. It is imperative to understand if Aeolus/HLOS observations can effectively characterize the near-storm wind environment to better analyze and predict the structural evolution of TCs. As a way to address this problem, robust error statistics are investigated to assess the representativeness of Aeolus/HLOS measurements. Observations from the P3 aircraft tail Doppler radar, NOAA’s Doppler wind Lidar, and GPS dropsondes are co-located and compared for the calibration/validation portion of this study.

In this presentation, the results from initial data evaluation and impact assessment experiments of Aeolus/HILOS in the predictability of tropical cyclones will be presented.