AQPI: Improved Operational Response to Precipitation Events in the San Francisco Bay Area

Complex terrain in the San Francisco Bay Area requires improved monitoring, alerting, and hydrological information to help improve response to precipitation events. Current monitoring of storms by weather radars in the Bay Area is incomplete due to terrain issues and model forecasts are biased due to these data gaps. In an effort to improve these deficiencies the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) awarded funding for the development of the Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information (AQPI) system.

The AQPI system will build on:

• A decade of work on NOAA–Hydrometeorology research, prototyping, and implementing a statewide state-of-the-art network of precipitation observations.
• NOAA’s research on the next generation of forecast models, observations, and display systems.
• Ongoing research to develop a coastal storm modeling system in San Francisco Bay by the USGS in Santa Cruz.
• Operational expertise and processes in the SF-Bay area.

to aid in the development of a state-of-the-art system for improved monitoring and forecasting of precipitation, stream flow, and coastal inundation. Improved monitoring will be provided by a C-band radar along the Sonoma county coast and 4 X-band radars sited in flood prone urban areas. The radars will provide early warning and higher temporal and spatial resolution precipitation estimates and a 30 minute nowcast of precipitation. This information will be assimilated in NOAA’s atmospheric models which are coupled with NOAA’s National Water Model (NWM). The AQPI system will use output from NOAA’s atmospheric and hydrological models to feed the United States Geological Survey (USGS) coastal inundation model.

To ensure the AQPI system, that is delivered, meets operational needs NOAA, USGS, and Colorado State University (CSU) developers are working closely with Water Agencies users and National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters. The AQPI system will couple the complete process, from observation to forecast to operational use. The AQPI system will evolve over the next 4 years as requirements are refined based on a rapid prototyping approach of requirements gathering, design, develop, test, evaluate and repeat the process. The development process is not only designed to improve the final system, it also will help improve user understanding of the final system and its products. We are hoping to show how this development and collaboration process is a pathway for becoming a weather ready nation. This effort is focused on hydrology but the same process and collaboration is required for all types of weather events and natural disasters.