Using Overshooting Top Area to Discriminate the Potential for Large, Intense Tornadoes

Recent work using idealized numerical supercell simulations established a strong link between storm updraft width and the tornado intensity, suggesting that updraft width could be used as a metric for gauging potential tornado intensity in storms. It was also posited that overshooting top area (OTA) could be used as an analog for updraft width and, thus, as a means to assess potential tornado intensity in observed storms. The implementation of new high-resolution GOES-R series satellites presents a unique opportunity to investigate these findings in severe weather observations. Herein, a method using GOES-16 longwave infrared satellite data to quantify overshooting top area (OTA) of tornadic storms is explored. A comparison between observed tornado strength and OTA yields a strong correlation (R² = 0.5384). These results show the potential of these quantifications to be used with real-time observations of tornadic storms, irrespective of storm mode, seasonality, or geographic location, allowing forecasters to determine which storms pose the highest risk to life and property.