8.3 Understanding the Impact of Meteorology on Ozone in 334 Cities of China

Tuesday, 14 January 2020: 3:30 PM
211 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Ping Kang, Chengdu Univ. of Information Technology, Chengdu, China; and X. Zhang and C. Hu

Ozone (O3) is one of the major pollutants in China, and it depends on the meteorological condition. In this study, we analyzed the characteristics of O3 pollution and the complicated interactions among the meteorological factors, which had strong effect on generating O3. The results showed that O3 pollution was becoming serious and the high-value area expanded significantly in 334 cities of China from 2015 to 2017. Based on Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), it was found that O3 was influenced by air pressure, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, sunshine duration, evaporation and precipitation. Different cities were influenced by different meteorological combinations, and the Top 3 influence factors in the 334 cities are temperature (90.77%), relative humidity (68.15%) and sunshine hours (66.96%). In addition, we also found that the influence of these meteorological factors on O3 pollution was non-linear, and was affected by cross-factors and time variable. The GAMs were further used to identify the dominant meteorological factors in each city and to forecast the O3 concentration. If only the time variables, the non-linear relationship among the meteorological factors and O3 were considered, the average R2 of GAMs was 0.64±0.16. However, comprehensively considering the time variable, the non-linear effects, and interactions, the average R2 of revised GAMs increased to 0.72±0.15 (i.e. the improvement ratio of the GAMs were 13.22% ±16.40%, and the R2 was significantly improved in 96.72% of cities after considering the interactions among the meteorological factors in the GAMs based on 10-fold cross-validation method). The results showed that the GAMs could predict O3 concentration accurately from 2015 to 2017.
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