Identifying Areas Impacted by Extreme Heat Events in Worcester, Massachusetts

Climate change will impact human population in many dimensions including urban areas, as 68% or more are projected to inhabit these areas by 2050 according to the 2018 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects by the United Nations. As a result, many cities have already begun adopting climate change mitigation strategies in order to lessen the impact of current and future climatic changes.

We will present a case study of the city of Worcester, MA, located in the northeastern US. Worcester is the 2nd largest urban area in the state of Massachusetts, with a population of approximately 185,000 according to the 2018 census projection. The city has already started working on mitigating the effects of future climate change. Worcester’s main environmental problems are concentrated in three main areas, which are flooding/extreme precipitation, drought/extreme temperatures, and extreme cold, ice, and snowstorms. While these problem areas have been identified and a wide variety of solutions have been suggested, the city lacks many specifics in their report, especially with regards to extreme temperatures and their impact on the city.

In this work, we will focus on the impact of extreme temperatures, as they are one of the leading causes of hospital visits and health issues. These occurrences will have a greater impact on people as the Earth continues to warm due to climate change. In Worcester, the temperature is expected to rise between 3 to 11 degrees fahrenheit by 2100, which will subsequently lead to an increase in the number of extreme heat events in the city. Due to the buildup of the Worcester metropolitan area, the city experiences an urban heat island effect, which has been well-documented in other urban areas across the world. Both climate change and the urban heat island effect will compound the effects of extreme heat events, and will also lead to an increase in their frequency throughout the city.

While the city of Worcester have identified possible solutions to combat extreme heat events, they have not clearly identified which areas of the city will be most heavily impacted by these occurrences. In their report detailing their municipality preparedness program, the city identified actions such as prioritizing the building of green infrastructure, the incorporation of greater vegetation, developing public outreach initiatives, and upgrading key buildings throughout the city as the most important methods to combatting extreme heat events. This identification process may be a good start to city-wide planning, but in order to further the city’s plans, these measures should first be implemented in the highest-risk areas of Worcester. This project aims to identify those areas through a combination of temperature data collection, using climate data, and population demographic mapping. By using collected historical climate data from the city, we are able to create a district-by-district map of Worcester illustrating which areas are most susceptible to extreme heat events. By combining the gathered temperature data and the demographic areas provided by the city, we are able to provide a more accurate picture of which areas of Worcester will be most susceptible to increased extreme heat events brought on by a changing climate. As a result, the city of Worcester will be able to incorporate policy changes in these areas first, which will be both economically and environmentally beneficial.

Identifying these areas of susceptibility within the city of Worcester are very important for the long-term success of the city. This research will potentially help the city make it easier for policy decisions to be implemented, and will better inform the city of where to incorporate the solutions they have laid out in their initial climate-preparedness report. These changes will hopefully aid in redesigning areas of the city so Worcester can become a more climate-resilient community. With Worcester’s population increasing at a rate of 2.7% each year, it is even more pertinent that this study is conducted, as more and more people will be susceptible to extreme heat as the climate continues to warm. As a result, identifying these problem areas and incorporating the necessary changes should lead to a decrease in heat-related hospital visits, and subsequently will improve the well-being of the population of the city.