NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Energetic Particle Event Forecast Skill

At the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA/SWPC) forecasts are issued for solar radiation storms, which consist of energetic protons. These events can be hazardous to the health of astronauts as well as passengers and crew on polar flights, and they can damage satellite electronics. Before new models from the research community can be implemented at SWPC, it is important to determine the current SWPC proton forecasting skill, to serve as a baseline for validation for how a new model could improve SWPC forecast ability. This skill was assessed over two decades in the time period from 1997 through 2017.