The NOPP Project: Forecasting of Winds, Waves, and Surge during Hurricane Katrina—A Retrospective

The long-term goal of this NOPP project was to establish an operational forecasting system of the
wind field and resulting waves and surge impacting the coastline during the approach and landfall of
tropical cyclones. This forecasting system applied an innovative approach to providing ensemble
tracks and intensity variations in real-time to establish improved advisories for the general public and
federal agencies including military and civil emergency response teams. The basis of such a forecast
system was Oceanweather’s wind fields and has been established over the past decade from the
development of the individual modules. These modules have independently been tested over the
years and were ready to be linked into a complete forecasting system. The presentation will give a
retrospective review of several new concepts that were introduced before they became standard with
the National Hurricane Center’s forecast and ultimately tested in Hurricane Katrina.