Impact of Environmental Risk Factors on Cardiovascular and Respiratory Mortality in California (1975–2010)

The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of environmental variables on the mortality of elderly patients (over 65 years) due to cardiovascular diseases (CD) and respiratory diseases (RD) in the counties of Los Angeles, Orange and Santa Bárbara, California; through statistical analyzes, in particular, principal components (PCA). For this purpose, daily data of the meteorological stations of the counties (temperature, pressure, humidity and wind speed), air pollution (NO₂, CO, SO₂ and O₃) and mortality by CD and RD were used during the period 1975-2005. In addition, seven thermal comfort indexes were calculated and comfort zones were established for different degrees of thermal perception according to the Effective Temperature index (TE). The results showed different trends in the temporal variation of CD and RD. While RD diseases had a fairly mild increase in all counties, CD showed a slight decrease in Orange and Santa Barbara counties and a steady decline in Los Angeles county. There was also a significant seasonal variation, with an evident increase in the number of deaths from both diseases during the winter and fall during the summer. In relation to the pollutants, many national standards for air quality were exceeded, mainly for the O₃, with 1443 times for Los Angeles, 771 for Orange and 114 for Santa Barbara. From the thermal comfort indexes it was noted that the most stressful month due to the heat was September, mainly for the counties of Los Angeles and Santa Barbara, and July and August for the county of Orange. Analyzing the average number of deaths due to thermal sensation, there was an increase of the illnesses in extreme, especially when the sensation is Very Cold, with RD averages of 16.42, 3.31 and 0.81 and CD average of 77.32, 15.37 and 2.92 in the counties of Los Angeles, Orange and Santa Barbara, respectively. Based on correlation analysis between variables and diseases, the best correlations were found in Los Angeles for both RD and CD, and the lowest correlations were observed in Santa Barbara. The results of PAC in the counties of Los Angeles and Orange showed the increase in CD mortality in winter associated to positive correlations with the levels of pollution mainly in Los Angeles and stress due to cold, humidity and wind (via thermal comfort index) in Orange. On the other hand, mortality due to RD diseases was more associated with meteorological variations than with pollutant concentrations, with positive associations with heat index (HI). In this sense, Orange County presented higher correlations with HI than the county of Los Angeles, in addition to a greater variance (11.36% vs. 9.89%). Finally, in Santa Barbara the results were very different, since both episodes of cold and heat did not show clear impacts in the elderly population, regarding both groups of diseases. The difference was that SO₂ levels had the highest positive association with CD mortality (0.53), although this county had the lowest concentrations studied (mean 0.29 ppb). In sum, counties have different social structures, despite the similarity of the climate, making the results quite different between them. The perspectives of these studies intend to place these results for future climates, since several episodes of heat waves occurred after 2010.